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It is widely accepted in the field of early care and education that staff turnover is high, but exactly how high has proven difficult to measure. 

A recent from the Buffett Early Childhood Institute at the University of Nebraska offers new insights into the extent of the field鈥檚 attrition rates, finding that only 56% of the early care and education workforce that was active in 2023 remained active two years later. 

In other words, between 2023 and 2025, 44% of staff working directly with children 鈥� such as teachers, program directors and owners 鈥� left the workforce, representing a loss of nearly 90,000 early childhood educators across the eight states that participated in the analysis. 

鈥淚 figured it would be high,鈥� said Alexandra Daro, director of applied research at the Buffett Early Childhood Institute and an author of the report. 鈥淚 was surprised it was that high. 鈥� That鈥檚 insane.鈥�

Consistent, stable caregivers are critically important for young children鈥檚 development, noted Linda Smith, another author of the report who recently left the institute to lead The Child Care Trust, a nonprofit focused on early childhood policy solutions. Yet the field lacks good measures of how often early educators leave their jobs.

To better understand staff turnover, researchers at Buffett looked at data from state workforce registries, which are systems that track information about the early childhood workforce, including each employee鈥檚 age, role, credentials and participation in the workforce over time. The report focused on staff working in licensed early childhood programs, including both center- and home-based settings. 

Of the 45 states with a confirmed workforce registry, eight ultimately agreed to participate in the analysis, Daro said. The participating states were Illinois, Maine, Montana, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. 

In 2023, those eight states had about 205,000 early childhood educators in their registry data. By 2025, that number had dropped to under 116,000. 

The state-level findings show a wider range of outcomes. Turnover was lowest in Maine, at 39%. It was highest in Montana (62%), followed by Tennessee (61%). 

Of the six states that provided registry data broken down by role, turnover rates were highest among teaching staff, with center-based assistant teachers especially likely to leave. This is notable, Smith said, because 鈥渢he single biggest factor for outcomes for children is the quality of adult interactions.鈥� When new teachers are frequently cycling through a program, it becomes difficult for children to develop strong bonds with them, creating fewer opportunities for high-quality interactions. 

One of the most interesting findings from the analysis, both Daro and Smith said, is the impact of educational attainment on retention rates. Educators who had an early childhood-specific degree or credential, such as the nationally recognized Child Development Associate, or an associate or bachelor鈥檚 degree in early childhood education, were more likely to remain in their roles two years later. 

Daro called early childhood credentials a 鈥減rotective factor鈥� for the workforce, given how much they seem to contribute to retention. 

The researchers found that, compared to a 56% retention rate among all educators included in the eight-state analysis, 70% of educators with an associate degree in early childhood education remained in the workforce, 65% of educators with a CDA credential remained, and 63% of educators with a general associate degree did. 

鈥淐hildcare is hard work. It鈥檚 hard, physical work,鈥� said Smith. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e not trained to understand basic child development, how you react to child behaviors varies.鈥� 

But educators with a CDA, on the other hand, 鈥渒now what to do,鈥� she added. 鈥淭hey know how to manage children.鈥�

Daro believes that, with three more states currently in the process of implementing a state workforce registry, the field is getting close to being able to look at the national turnover rate in early care and education using this kind of detailed registry data. 

In the meantime, there is much to be learned from what these results from the eight states show, she said: High turnover rates, on top of low compensation and inconsistent qualifications among educators, adds to the volatility and instability of the early care and education sector. But educational attainment, particularly through a targeted early childhood education degree or credential, may offer a path forward.

The takeaway, Smith said, is clear: 鈥淲e need people trained in early childhood and child development. When they have that, they tend to stay.鈥�

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