麻豆精品

Join our zero2eight Substack community for more discussion about the latest news in early care and education.

The standard narrative around the American child care system is that slots in licensed programs are prohibitively expensive and incredibly hard to find. In the past year or so, however, there is evidence of a decoupling between cost and availability. Child care remains utterly unaffordable and out of reach for many families, but increasingly 鈥� while years-long waitlists certainly still exist for some programs 鈥� many child care providers are struggling with underenrollment. Ironically, the fact that so many slots are now going unfilled poses another existential threat to the system.

The evidence for underenrollment is myriad, with data points coming in from a range of sources. For instance, KinderCare, the nation鈥檚 largest private child care provider, stated on a that enrollment was down around 2% year-over-year. The Bank of America Institute, an economic think tank that provides insights from the bank鈥檚 data, in October 2025 that, among its customers, the share of households with more than one source of income making child care payments had dropped to slightly under 35.5%. That figure is down nearly 2% since 2021, with a more prominent decrease among low-income households. These findings suggest that fewer families are utilizing licensed child care programs, which may result in open slots. 

While these percentages aren鈥檛 massive, they are meaningful when applied across the board to the . These data also track with as they wrestle with high costs of living and declines in flexible work-from-home options. 

Child care programs are reporting the phenomenon as well. Over half of child care program administrators in early 2025 by the National Association for the Education of Young Children (NAEYC) said they have fewer children enrolled than they would like.

Importantly, the sector鈥檚 declining enrollment doesn鈥檛 appear to be driven by some sudden drop of interest in licensed care among families, nor by declining birth rates as some nations are experiencing (there isn鈥檛 evidence that this is a significant factor in the U.S. yet. 

Instead, households are grappling with a lack of ability to afford their preferred care arrangement. Among underenrolled programs in the NAEYC survey, the top reason (given by 41% of respondents) was parents鈥� inability to afford a slot. A recent survey of New York City parents from Columbia鈥檚 Center on Poverty and Social Policy that 16% of respondents had cut back on child care hours or stopped using child care altogether due to cost; the number rose to 34% among single moms. (Other parents reported switching to what they considered 鈥渋nadequate鈥� care as a result of costs.)

Rising costs aren鈥檛 the only reason for underenrollment: A fierce scarcity of early educators is leaving many classrooms dark. In the NAEYC survey, the second and third most cited reasons for underenrollment related to not having 鈥� or being able to retain 鈥� enough staff. A recent by the Wisconsin Early Childhood Association (WECA) illustrates how this plays out in practice. The analysis found that in Wisconsin, most center-based programs are operating at around 75% of their licensed capacity, leaving over 33,000 seats unfilled 鈥� and filling those seats would require an estimated 4,000 educators. Low compensation is a primary driver behind these staffing shortages. The WECA analysis also revealed that one-quarter of the state鈥檚 early childhood workforce left the field permanently in 2024. That鈥檚 a crippling level of annual turnover, to say nothing of the negative impacts on children . And when programs have to pay their monthly bills with fewer paying families, they may be forced to raise rates, ending up in a vicious cycle that can lead to closure. 

The link between poor pay for early educators, staff shortages and underenrollment is not unique to Wisconsin. In 2024, a group of researchers led by the University of Virginia鈥檚 Daphna Bassok, the latest in a series of workforce studies on Louisiana, a state with a particularly strong early childhood data system. Bassok鈥檚 team looked at programs accepting public subsidy dollars that did or did not utilize pandemic-era grants to boost wages. Among programs with lead teacher pay of $8.50 an hour, 40% had at least one-quarter of their staffing positions vacant, over half had to close classrooms and 70% had to turn families away. Programs with better, but still low, pay of $15 an hour (about $31,000 a year) had reduced rates of vacancies, but 47% still closed classrooms and 59% still had to turn families away.

Underenrollment, then, is a multifaceted problem that calls for multifaceted response. 

For one, the trend adds more urgency to lower parent fees via direct public funding. The more states can follow the lead of exemplars like Vermont, New Mexico and in expanding who is eligible for free or low-cost care, the better. Underenrollment is also a symptom of how much families are struggling right now overall, suggesting the need to put more money in their pockets via mechanisms like expanded and refundable child tax credits.  

On the program side, getting money into providers鈥� hands so they can should be a priority. Here, states would do well to look at precedents like Massachusetts鈥� Commonwealth Cares for Children (C3) grants, which provide monthly checks to over of the state鈥檚 licensed programs, and Washington鈥檚 which raises early educator pay through wage supplements by while moving them toward parity with elementary school teachers. While there is certainly reason to continue building out new supply in geographic areas that need it, a major priority in the present moment should be maximizing the system鈥檚 existing capacity.

Policy tends to move along lines of 鈥減ath dependence鈥� 鈥� the concept that we do what we鈥檝e done because that鈥檚 what we鈥檝e been doing 鈥� and it can be difficult to unlearn old narratives or change course even when there is a promising alternative. 

There are now two simultaneous truths about American child care: Families struggle to find child care, often facing long waitlists, while many child care centers sit partially empty. The slots aren鈥檛 vacant because families don鈥檛 need care. They鈥檙e vacant聽because families can鈥檛 afford care 鈥� and because providers lack the staff required to operate at full capacity. Policymakers need to adjust their strategies and solve for both problems at once.聽

The good news is that there is a solution that addresses each challenge in turn: making child care a right backed up by strong, permanent public funding. While the child care story has evolved, the answer has never been clearer.

Did you use this article in your work?

We鈥檇 love to hear how 麻豆精品鈥檚 reporting is helping educators, researchers, and policymakers.