The found by the start of the 2022-23 academic year the number of students who left their respective college grew to nearly 37 million — a 2.9 percent growth compared to the previous year.

But the overall number of students ages 18 to 64 leaving was largely seen in four-year schools compared to two-year programs.

Josh Wyner, founder and executive director of the , said the advising model utilized at community colleges across the country has contributed to their retention by developing an individualized plan for students to schedule classes and monitor progress.

“What that means is [community colleges] have created a much clearer pathway to a degree and restructured their advising systems to ensure students get on those pathways early on,” Wyner told �鶹��Ʒ, noting schools such as the and in Texas as prime examples of successful models.

Laurel Williamson, deputy chancellor and president at San Jacinto College, said the advising model is particularly helpful for first generation college students.

“It used to be just giving the student a schedule or telling them to go online and pick some classes — that’s crazy,” Williamson told �鶹��Ʒ. “Students don’t know how to pick classes…[and] we weren’t consciously thinking about it from the student experience side.”

Today nearly 400 community colleges in 16 states have implemented guided pathways reforms, according to the that designed the advising system in 2015.

“Guided pathways have enabled community colleges to reduce the number of students leaving and therefore having less of a population of ‘some college no degree’ adults,” Wyner added.

Williamson said Texas has been “proactive” about using guided pathways, noting 48 of the 50 community colleges have adopted the advising system. 

“[Guided] pathways bring you to focus on what is really important in terms of student completion and student goals,” Williamson said. “It could be a one year certificate, it could be an associate degree. But to boil that down, it is entry into the workforce at a family sustaining wage or an on-ramp to transfer with no loss of credits and junior status at a university.”

Since adopting the model in 2016, Williamson said the key benefit for students is the “thought out” academic advising.

“If you come in and say ‘I want to be a communications major and I want to transfer to the University of Houston-Clear Lake campus we map out the whole trajectory from your entry here to your completion of a bachelor’s degree at Clear Lake so there’s no confusion,” Williamson said.

Mike Flores, chancellor at the , agreed with Williamson and emphasized how the advising system is flexible if a student decides to change their major.

“If the catalog changes, the core requirements change or anything in the general education requirements change at the receiving institution, then our folks are some of the first to know and they then revise the advising guide accordingly,” Flores told �鶹��Ʒ.

Guided pathways have helped drive down the schools’ degree completion rates from 4.4 to 3.6 years.

“We know time is the enemy of degree completion for our students because education is just one of multiple commitments that they have in their lives,” Flores said, noting that 65 percent of his students are part-time and taking two to three courses each term. 

“It’s saving them time and it’s saving them money, and in turn, we see more students graduating,” Flores said.

Growth in Students Leaving College

The report found the number of students leaving a public four-year school increased by 2.9 percent. But public two-year schools decreased by 4.1 percent — or 52,100 students.

The report also noted the population of students leaving college continues to be less white and more male than the overall undergraduate population — with Latino and Black students disproportionately represented.

Latino and Black students were 24.4 and 19.1 percent of the students leaving college compared to being 21.5 and 14 percent of all enrolled undergraduates in the 2022-23 academic year. 

Wyner believes this disparity is due to students’ enrollment patterns, noting that Black, Latino, Native American and low-income students often don’t choose majors that lead to well paying jobs.

“When we look at which programs those populations are engaged in, they tend to be in programs of study that are less likely to lead to a job with a family-sustaining wage or for a community college student to get a bachelor’s degree,” Wyner said, such as general studies which signals students are entering school without a clear post-graduate plan.

He added that community colleges using guided pathways have seen an increase in degree completion because of their emphasis on career advising.

“​​When students don’t have a promise that the degree and programs they’re enrolled in are likely to lead to strong outcomes, then the chances they’re going to drop out are likely to be much greater,” Wyner said. 

“If I don’t see a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow,” said Wyner, “why continue to travel across that rainbow?” 

The data, released by the and the , found about one-third of community college students transfer to a four-year school with less than half graduating within six years — equating to the net completion rate of 16 percent.

But the report, in collaboration with the , saw even smaller completion rates for students who are Black, Latino and low-income at 9, 13 and 11 percent respectively.

John Fink, a senior research associate at the Community College Research Center, said this is because the transfer system is “riddled with barriers” from the historic lack of collaboration between community colleges and four-year schools.

“It’s not an equitable system when we rely on [community college] students to come in with knowledge of this hidden curriculum on how to transfer instead of holding institutions responsible for creating clear pathways and adequate advising along the way,” Fink said.

The confusion and lack of clarity has added to students’ growing disdain for working towards a four-year degree as recent enrollment gains come particularly from community colleges with a vocational program focus, Fink said. 

“The [transfer system] largely replicates existing societal inequities,” Fink said. “The folks who are going to community college in large numbers are from communities that have historically had less access to bachelor and graduate degrees — like low-income and students of color.”

“If there’s no additional resources and support to make up for this, you can expect to see these disparities in completion outcomes,” Fink said.

Disparate Bachelor’s Degree Outcomes

The report showed mixed four-year completion outcomes from community college transfers demographically, Fink said. 

Low-income, Black and Latino students saw completion rates below the national average, in addition to men and students 25 years or older.

But high-income, Asian and White students saw completion rates above the national average, in addition to women and students 18 to 19 years old.

Fink said completion rates have increased slightly compared to previous years — jumping from 14 percent in 2016.

But he noted the increase is “not a lot [and] definitely not where we need it to be.”

“There is so much potential here to create greater economic mobility, to further diversify student bodies and to bring in community college transfers that can perform at the same if not higher rates than non-transfer students,” Fink said.

Fink said creating a “sense of belonging” on campus and expanding core practices such as dual enrollment will greatly improve transfer completion outcomes.

“Visibility, belonging and inclusion are important things to think about in order to change some of these dismal outcomes nationally,” Fink said.

‘Exclusionary’ Transfer Practices 

Dr. Marielena DeSanctis, president of the , said the completion disparities for students from low-income backgrounds are troubling.

“There’s plenty of data that speaks to more and more jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree, so it’s concerning when you start limiting the number of people that can attain one,” DeSanctis said.

DeSanctis, who previously worked at , said Florida has a very different landscape for students to transfer from a community college to a four-year school compared to Colorado.

“There was no question that the courses you were taking were going to transfer and that it was going to be equivalent credits [but] here in Colorado that’s not the case,” DeSanctis said, noting the harm of “exclusionary” transfer practices she’s noticed from four-year schools.

“Because community colleges tend to be more racially and ethnically diverse, we should be telling students that community college is a vehicle to transfer to a university — particularly students that are ready to change the trajectory of their lives,” DeSanctis said. 

Debi Gaitan, vice president of student services at , agreed with DeSanctis, adding that constraints placed on students from low-income backgrounds shouldn’t hinder them from having access to a four-year school whether they decide to transfer or go straight into the workforce.

“San Antonio is very much a city where we can see where our communities of poverty reside and they feed directly into our institutions,” Gaitan said, noting that her students are often part-time, caring for family members and working to make ends meet.

“We want to ensure the stigma of not completing is not placed on this population,” Gaitan said. “It’s more about ‘did they reach their goal of being able to get a better job with better income to get out of poverty.’”

Gaitan said it’s important for both community colleges and four-year schools to actively reach out to students from low-income backgrounds.

“Students that have choices and are resourced know about us and know what we have to offer,” Gaitan said. “Therefore we need to shift to the communities that don’t know we’re here…[because] students from intergenerational cycles of poverty need those same resources our upwardly mobile, higher income communities already have.”

Gaitan said resources that have been effective in her community include counseling programs and “apartment starters” where students have access to microwaves, washing machines and other household needs so they can focus on their studies.

“These are communities that need us to be different and need us to be doing more,” Gaitan said. “We want as many people in higher education to know this as possible because that’s how we have learned and that’s how we have adopted and adapted some really promising practices.”

This article is part of a series in partnership with reporter Joshua Bay’s highlighting the struggles of community college students.

The found community colleges led overall undergraduate enrollment growth in the fall of 2023 by 2.6 percent, or 118,000 students, compared to the previous year.

Community college gains were carried by those with a vocational program focus — pointing to students’ growing disdain for working towards a four-year degree.

“We have shortages in a lot of jobs that require bachelor’s degrees,” said Josh Wyner, founder and executive director of the , including well-paying careers in nursing, teaching and software engineering that pay north of $50,000 annually.

“So when we see students entering community college not in those liberal arts programs that lead to bachelor’s degrees, it’s troubling,” Wyner said, adding that a vocational degree won’t provide the long-term financial payoff that would more likely come from a four-year education.

Career-Driven Programs Lead Enrollment Growth

Community colleges with a vocational program focus grew 16 percent in the fall of 2023 compared to the previous year’s 3 percent gain — bringing them above their pre-pandemic enrollment by nearly 30,000 students.

But, transfer-focused community colleges only grew slightly by 0.2 percent in the fall of 2023 compared to the previous year’s 1.1 percent drop — continuing their pre-pandemic enrollment decline by more than 500,000 students.

“There’s fewer community college students entering a transfer pipeline that we can’t afford to lose,” said John Fink, a senior research associate at the .

This trend comes as community colleges remain in a “very deep hole” because their uptick in enrollment doesn’t come close to pre-pandemic numbers, he added.

The report found community college growth in the fall of 2023 brings current enrollment to about 4.5 million students.

Popular programs include computer science, business and health that grew by 9.1, 3.5 and 2.4 percent respectively. 

But, there were more than 5.2 million students enrolled pre-pandemic — leaving community colleges with a net loss of nearly 700,000 students.

“Community college growth is certainly an encouraging sign, but there’s still a long way to go to get back to where we were,” said Jeremy Cohen, a research associate at the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Despite the growing number of companies no longer requiring job applicants to have a four-year degree, their hiring behavior hasn’t changed, Wyner said.

“The majority of good jobs in our country are populated by workers that have a bachelor’s or greater,” Wyner said. “So if students aren’t enrolling in community college programs that align with attaining a bachelor’s, we’re going to really struggle filling job vacancies in the future.”

Wyner said the main factor community college-goers rely on to decide whether a four-year degree is worth pursuing is “word-of-mouth” experiences from current students.

“If a student leaves [a four-year] college without a degree or with a degree that didn’t give them a better life than they would have had if they never attended, they’re going to go back to their communities and when people ask if it was worth it their answer is going to be no,” Wyner said. 

“So the decisions we’re seeing them make may be entirely rational because the educational system keeps failing far too many of them,” he added.

Transfer Student Declines Impact Four-Year Schools

This trend has implications for four-year institutions that rely on transfer students as part of their enrollment strategy, Fink said. 

“It might seem like this is a community college issue, but that’s going to translate in years forward to many four-year institutions,” Fink said.

Wyner added how leaders at four-year institutions need to play their part in correcting community college enrollment declines.

“Instead of lamenting the fact that student enrollment in community colleges has come down, four-year schools need to lean in and do something about it,” Wyner said, such as emulating Northern Virginia Community College’s that provides dual enrollment and guaranteed admission at George Mason University.

He said their program transfers more than 4,000 students every year to George Mason University and has a graduation rate of over 70 percent — higher than the national undergraduate average of .

“If you create really strong pathways for students, they’ll come back to community colleges,” Wyner said.

This article is part of a series in partnership with reporter Joshua Bay’s highlighting the struggles of community college students.

While overall completion rates for students nationwide stalled at all colleges, Black and Latino students’ saw success at community colleges, which were prepared for pandemic challenges with tools in place like online classes for working students.

“[Community colleges] were better situated to handle the disruption from in-person to online courses…and that, in fact, led to greater retention rates,” said Josh Wyner, founder and executive director of the .

Analyzing trends for students six years after enrolling in postsecondary education, a from the found a 62.2 percent completion rate for those starting in fall 2017 — a stalled number compared to 2015.

But, Black and Latino students’ who enrolled in fall 2017 saw completion rates decline to 43.4 percent and 50.1 percent respectively — a 0.5 and 0.2 percentage point drop compared to those enrolled in 2016.

Wyner said the imbalance for Black and Latino students came from either the need to work when parents lost their jobs or the need to take care of siblings because their parents didn’t have jobs during the pandemic where they could work from home.

“Income and wealth disparities often prevented students from these groups from not only enrolling in college in the first place but also staying when there were disruptions,” Wyner said.

At public four-year colleges, Black and Latino students saw steeper completion rate declines to 48.7 percent and 56.1 percent respectively — a 1.5 and 1 percentage point drop compared to those enrolled in 2016.

In contrast, Black and Latino students at community colleges increased to 31.6 percent and 38 percent respectively — a 0.5 and 0.1 percentage point gain compared to those enrolled in 2016.

Wyner said the completion rate hike at community colleges was because those schools historically enroll students with diverse educational needs, and by necessity, were already invested in online learning pre-pandemic.

Amrit Ahluwalia, director of strategic insights at , said in a statement in response to the report that the increase in community college completion rates show how young students view college as a “means to an end.”

“When they get the learning they feel they need to support their short-term employability, they find jobs and leave their programs,” Ahluwalia said.

Wyner said because Black and Latino students often come from lower income communities, they view community college as a more attainable means of education.

“On average, tuition for a public institution is twice the rate at a four-year college than a community college,” Wyner said. “So it would make sense that if income correlates [completion declines for Black and Latino students] would be felt more in the four-year space than the community college space.”

This comes as more than 2.4 million students enrolled in postsecondary education for the first time in fall 2017 — an increase of 1.2 percent compared to 2016.

“Not only have fewer of the 2017 starters completed as of 2023, but the data also show fewer still enrolled, suggesting that this is more than just a matter of slower progress during the pandemic years,” Doug Shapiro, executive director of the research center, said in a statement.

In addition, the gender gap continued to grow for those enrolled in fall 2017 — with a completion rate of 65.6 percent for female students compared to 58.4 percent for males.

Wyner said the low number of colleges providing hands-on learning had a disproportionate impact on male student retention.

“There’s pretty good evidence that adults learn better when theory is taught alongside hands-on learning,” Wyner said. “I do think that is something that really needs to be thought about as a way to bring men back into higher ed.”

He added how this is especially true for male students who feel disconnected from learning because they were raised in families that worked blue-collar jobs without needing a degree.

Moving forward, Wyner said colleges need to fully address the value they offer to students so they continue to stick around despite their life circumstances.

“If your programs aren’t actually delivering value to students, they may be making entirely rational decisions to leave,” Wyner said.