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Congratulations! High school graduation rates in your state are hitting all-time highs!  

But before you crack open the champagne, you should know that only a small fraction of those students can do high school-level math. Those graduates may struggle if they try to go to college, qualify for military service or pursue other technical training. 

How big is this problem? And how does it vary across the country? In a recent project for , I set out to quantify the disparity between a state鈥檚 high school graduation and math proficiency rates. We dubbed this the .

Because states define high school math proficiency differently, the precise gaps are not perfectly comparable across states. But in many places, the disparities are shockingly large. In California, for example, 86% of high school students are graduating within four years, yet just 30% of 11^th graders pass the state math test. Florida reports a 90% graduation rate while 44% of students reached only level 3 out of 5 on end-of-course exams in algebra and geometry. The state warns that students performing at this level 鈥渕ay need additional support for the next grade/course.鈥�

These are not isolated examples. Across the country, the percentage of high schoolers who earn diplomas far exceeds the percentage who can demonstrate mastery in math, often by 30, 40 or even 50 percentage points.

We focused on math for a few reasons. One is that the gaps tend to be larger in math than they are in reading. For example, 51% of Minnesota鈥檚 10^th graders were proficient in reading, compared with 35% in math.

Two, as the collaborative鈥檚 director Jim Cowen in a recent Forbes piece, these types of gaps suggest that students are leaving high school unprepared for college coursework, workforce training or apprenticeships that require foundational math skills. At a macro level, lower math skills are likely to lead to lower earnings growth. 

Our analysis also found that states that use some externally validated exams, like the SAT or ACT, tended to have lower math proficiency rates than states that created their own tests. In Nevada, for instance, just 21% of students met ACT鈥檚 college-ready benchmark in math, and in New Hampshire, only 31% of 11^th graders met the SAT benchmark  in math.

In contrast, states with their own exams, like New Jersey (59%), Ohio (59%), Iowa (67%) and especially Texas (78%) and Virginia (81%), all reported much higher proficiency rates. Given that students in these states are not doing much better on nationally comparable exams among eighth graders, it鈥檚 likely that these reflect lower standards rather than any real superiority in math performance. 

The gaps were also larger for certain subgroups. For example, in Indiana, 25% of students overall met the SAT鈥檚 benchmark in math, but the rates were even lower for low-income students (12%), those with disabilities (5%) and English learners (3%).

What can be done about these problems? The answer can鈥檛 be to simply lower graduation rates until they match the proficiency levels, or to discard diplomas entirely, even if their signaling value has been degraded over time. For example, analyzed rising graduation rates through 2018 and concluded that the gains were likely the result of students actually learning academic or other social skills. Similarly, it would also be a mistake for states to lower the bar for math proficiency any further than they already have by getting rid of consequences for low performance or by reducing or grading standards.

A better place to start would be to pay more attention to children who struggle with math early in their schooling. If students have trouble with addition and multiplication, they鈥檙e likely going to have difficulty with fractions, too. And if they struggle with fractions, they鈥檙e likely to have problems in algebra.

Indeed, math proficiency as students advance up the grades. It鈥檚 not that they know less, but they fall further and further behind. That demands more urgency and attention to basic skills well before kids get to high school.  

But once students do reach the high school level, states need to strike a better balance in how they use their math exams. In 2002, more than half of all states to earn a diploma. But that led to a watering-down of standards and the creation of workaround pathways. All but six states have rolled those mandates back. 

An alternative model comes from states like Georgia, Virginia, and North and South Carolina, which administer end-of-course exams in algebra, English, science and social studies. The tests are directly aligned to content that students were taught over the course of the school year, and the results count for 10% to 20% of a student鈥檚 final course grade. Using tests in this way may be a better approach to making students care about how much they learn without preventing them from earning a diploma.

Most importantly, states need to be honest about what a high school diploma actually means. It should signal that a graduate is ready for what comes next 鈥� college, career training, military service or the workforce.

When states continue awarding diplomas while large shares of students remain far below grade level in math, that signal weakens. Families assume a high school diploma reflects readiness. Employers and colleges often do too. But the Graduation Gap data show that assumption is shaky.

In other words, state leaders need to strike a better balance between attainment measures like graduation rates and achievement measures like math scores. To do that, states need to pay more attention to gaps in foundational skills , measure learning more honestly and ensure that the diplomas students receive actually means what the public believes it means.

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