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A political battle over school-based COVID protocols in early 2021 quickly turned personal for one Colorado family, whose son’s cystic fibrosis 鈥� a life-threatening genetic disease impacting the lungs and other vital organs 鈥� made him susceptible to complications from the virus. 

Kate Gould said the classroom became a dangerous place for her son after took over the Douglas County school board and the district removed masking requirements.

After a prolonged back-and-forth, involving a pulmonologist and a special education attorney, district leaders finally agreed to an accommodation for his classroom, mandating masks. But mere weeks later, the superintendent was fired and, under new leadership, the district again removed the masking accommodation without consulting doctors or Gould, she told 麻豆精品 in a recent interview. 

Now, almost four years later, Gould and her family live in Southern California 鈥� where they moved during the pandemic for its masking and eventual COVID vaccine requirements 鈥� and they and other parents, advocates and health experts are gearing up for what could be the next front of the school culture wars: a broader attack on school vaccine mandates by the incoming Trump administration.

Currently, all 50 states have vaccine requirements for children entering child care and schools. But with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 鈥� who has peddled baseless conspiracy theories and 鈥淭here’s no vaccine that is safe and effective鈥� 鈥� potentially at the helm of the Department of Health and Human Services, advocates and parents are right to fear a rollback of requirements, enforcements and funding, according to interviews with about a dozen experts. 

鈥淭he anti-vax warriors have made it inside the castle walls,鈥� said Richard Hughes, a George Washington University law professor who teaches a course on vaccine law.

Kennedy’s legitimization and the different levers he could pull, experts told 麻豆精品, could have an immense impact on vaccination rates and the spread of preventable, contagious diseases in school-aged kids.

If confirmed by the Senate, Kennedy would take control of an agency with a budget and 90,000 employees spread across 13 agencies, including the and the . Dave Weldon, nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to head the CDC, has also endorsed debunked theories, and some chronic diseases.

Kennedy, whose nomination faces from health professionals and scientists and questioning by , did not respond to requests for comment. He has said he would not take away vaccines but look to make more of their safety and efficacy data available. 

鈥淲e don鈥檛 know what he鈥檚 going to do,鈥� John Swartzberg, a professor at the University of California Berkeley鈥檚 School of Public Health told 麻豆精品. 鈥淏ut if he tries to carry out the things that he鈥檚 publicly stated 鈥� not just recently but over a long, long time 鈥� then the implications for our children in school are dire.鈥�

While most school vaccine requirements come from states, the recommendations they’re based on begin with federal agencies, such as the CDC, and enforcement is often left up to local districts. This leaves room for both federal influence and 鈥渁 hodgepodge of enforcement,鈥� said Northe Saunders, executive director of the pro-vaccine , who sees battles around school vaccination mandates playing out at the federal, state and school board levels.

Experts agreed the federal government is highly unlikely to attempt to take vaccines off the market or categorically ban mandates, and most don鈥檛 anticipate individual states will do away with their long-standing requirements.

But James Hodge, a public health law expert at Arizona State University’s Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, pointed out, 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 actually have to pull the vaccine for people to stop using it. You have to raise doubts about it.鈥�

That can happen by planting seeds of misinformation, he said, or by starting to require that vaccines be assessed differently for approval or federal funding. Any slight dropoff in parents vaccinating their kids entering schools or day care can result in disease outbreaks, an outcome Hodge said he expects to see over the next year or so. Such declines are

As secretary, Kennedy could delay FDA vaccine development and influence the selection of CDC advisory committee members who make the vaccine recommendations that states then use to determine their requirements. Programs that provide free vaccines for kids could also see their funding cut.

鈥淭here鈥檚 short-term threats in terms of funding and what鈥檚 going to be available for state immunization programs,鈥� Saunders said, 鈥淸and then] there鈥檚 long-term threats about immunization policy and what the future of the immunization landscape in the country can hold.鈥�

Even in Democratically controlled California, Gould, the mom whose son has cystic fibrosis, said she鈥檚 concerned about shifts in vaccine rhetoric, particularly at the school board level. 

鈥淚 think what I have learned from my experience in Douglas County, Colorado, is that when these individuals take over majorities on school boards, it really affects everyone 鈥� Despite the fact that we are a highly educated, very liberal, coastal section of Southern California, you definitely have people that are trying to make inroads 鈥� and these are people who are anti-science.鈥�

Are vaccines the new critical race theory?

Parents across the country are able to apply for exemptions if their child is unable to get vaccinated for medical reasons. Most states also have religious exemptions, and 20 have some form of personal , leaving a varied landscape. 

School vaccine mandates have been around for , and while some pushback has always existed, it wasn鈥檛 until COVID that there was a real spike in vaccine hesitancy, according to Kate King, president of the and a school nurse in Ohio.

The source of the skepticism has shifted, too: 鈥淩arely have we seen the federal government behind those debates in a way that this next administration could be,鈥� said ASU鈥檚 Hodge.

Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, sees the potential 鈥渦nraveling of decades and generations of protective vaccines.鈥�

鈥淩FK believes he knows more than the totality of any science that has come before him,鈥� she said. 

For a vaccine to get approved, it must first go through an advisory committee at the FDA. Another committee at the CDC then develops recommendations for vaccine schedules, which state legislators rely on to determine their school policies. Kennedy would have an enormous impact on who serves on these committees, and he could stack them with anti-vaccine advocates.

Kennedy could also request a review of all vaccines that have been previously approved by the FDA and subject them to new requirements. 

Many vaccines are paid for by the federal government. If Congress 鈥� under HHS鈥檚 direction or on their own 鈥� were to begin pulling that money, some of the most vulnerable children across the country could lose access to immunization. Trump has threatened to requiring vaccines for students. 

鈥淭he moment you start tacking on any price tag to a vaccination 鈥� any price tag whatsoever, even fairly minimal 鈥� you do see vaccination rates go down,鈥� said Hodge.

Beyond policy actions, experts warned of the power of rhetoric. 鈥淲e still rely 鈥� even under legal mandates that exist at the state level 鈥� on public acceptance of vaccines,鈥� Hodge added, so for vaccine rates to remain high, so too must the public trust. The mere presence of a federal official who is skeptical and 鈥� at times outright hostile 鈥� towards vaccines gives the opposition more credibility.

Since the enforcement of these policies is typically left up to the district level, some advocates are anticipating increased pressure on school board members to take anti-vaccine positions. 

鈥淭he real tension is if a school board decides that they don鈥檛 want to support these [vaccine mandate] policies,鈥� said Hughes, the GW law professor. 鈥淭hey can鈥檛 change the policies, but they might say, 鈥榃e don’t support these policies. Not in our school district. No way, no how.鈥欌��

He said he鈥檚 already seen some groups use vaccines as a wedge issue, much like the debate over critical race theory 鈥� an academic framework used to examine systematic racism 鈥� that convulsed school boards a few years ago.

In , public health workers were recently forbidden from promoting COVID, flu and mpox 鈥� previously known as monkeypox 鈥� shots, according to a recent NPR investigation. And a regional public health department in Idaho is no longer providing COVID vaccines to residents in six counties after a by its board. 

There鈥檚 money in anti-vax anxiety

The anti-vaccination movement is not new. It can be traced back as far as the 18th century with Edward Jenner鈥檚 discovery of the smallpox vaccine. Because it was made from cowpox, people at the time were afraid that if they got the vaccine, they鈥檇 turn into a cow, said Swartzberg, the public health professor who has taught a course on the anti-vax movement for over a decade. 

鈥淭here鈥檚 always been opposition to vaccination because it鈥檚 the idea of the word inoculate, 鈥� meaning putting into you something foreign 鈥� and that scares people,鈥� Swartzberg said. 鈥淚 understand that. That鈥檚 where emotion has to be countered with data.鈥� 

The group of people so stringently anti-vaccination that they refuse them is small but vocal, he said. Over the past few years, though, 鈥渟omething has dramatically changed in our society,鈥� and the voices behind the movement have shifted from expressing personal fears to looking to monetize the fears of others. 

For example, Joseph Mercola, deemed one of the 鈥� the 12 people responsible for sharing the majority of anti-vax messaging on social media 鈥� made substantial sums of money by peddling far-fetched health claims and then as alternative treatments. Kennedy also appeared on the 鈥淒isinformation Dozen鈥� list.

Others sell merchandise, books and tickets to events, offer exclusive paid content on platforms like Patreon, have sponsored content and display affiliate marketing links to anti-vaccine products.

鈥淚t鈥檚 turned into an incredibly lucrative field for anti-vaxxers, and what鈥檚 really facilitated this has been the internet and the lack of any monitoring of the internet for misinformation and disinformation,鈥� Swartzberg said.

Just last week, Meta, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, d that it will end its fact-checking program on social media posts. 

Using social media and other mechanisms, the anti-vax movement has targeted fairly insular groups around the United States with misinformation, he added. These include New York鈥檚 and the y in Minnesota, both of which have seen recent measles outbreaks. 

While the image of vaccine skeptical parents is often one of young, white 鈥�,鈥� Keri Rodrigues, president of the National Parents Union, also pointed to 鈥渨ell-earned鈥� trepidation among Black and Latino parents. 

Historically, she noted, significant harm has been done to Black communities through the weaponization of medical trials, and families of color have had particularly negative experiences with the health care system 鈥�

During the pandemic, Children鈥檚 Health Defense, Kennedy鈥檚 anti-vaccine advocacy organization, seemed to tap into this distrust when it put out targeting Black Americans with disproven vaccine claims.聽

Gould, the California mom, said if she were still living in more conservative Douglas County she鈥檇 fear that people would 鈥渂elieve the disinformation [and] stop vaccinating their children. For kids with chronic illnesses 鈥� or like my son, a life-limiting illness 鈥� that has massive consequences. It has life-or-death consequences.鈥�

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