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Seven months after the Trump administration shed hundreds of jobs at the U.S. Department of Education and eight months after it gutted research contracts and grants, several developments are offering researchers a measure of cautious optimism about what comes next.

Responding to lawsuits filed after the administration鈥檚 Department of Government Efficiency, led by billionaire Elon Musk, canceled more than 100 key research contracts in February, the department in June said it planned to reinstate 20 of the contracts. And a lawsuit will give a short reprieve to 10 federally funded . The department is also asking the public for guidance on how it can modernize the Institute of Education Sciences, its research, evaluation and statistics arm. 

鈥淭hey’re not saying in any explicit way, but you see this 鈥榖uild-back,鈥欌�� said a longtime assessment professional familiar with IES, who asked not to be named to preserve professional relationships.

The department likely realized that, despite the DOGE cuts, IES still had a lot of congressionally mandated work to do. 鈥淚 think there were some 鈥極h shit!鈥� moments, but nobody would say that, because they’re not going to criticize DOGE or the president.鈥�

, executive director of the American Educational Research Association, called the developments 鈥渃autiously encouraging,鈥� noting also that NCES plans updates to several surveys and administrative data collections. And it鈥檚 releasing existing surveys such as , which analyze data each year from all U.S. colleges and universities that receive federal financial aid.

鈥淥n a scale of 1 to 10 鈥� where IES was at 10 prior to the DOGE cuts and 1 a month ago 鈥� we would place it at 3 or 4 today,鈥� said Chavous. 

On a scale of 1 to 10 鈥� where IES was at 10 prior to the DOGE cuts and 1 a month ago 鈥� we would place it at 3 or 4 today.

Tabbye Chavous, American Educational Research Association

But she added that 鈥渟evere staff shortages鈥� at the department 鈥渃ontinue to threaten data quality and research progress. We remain deeply concerned about the long-term impacts of these cuts on researchers and others who rely on federally collected and supported data.鈥�

Despite the Trump administration鈥檚 promise to shutter the Education Department, it seems to be looking for ways to keep its research activities moving forward. Last month, the administration published a , seeking public input on how it can modernize IES. That effort will stop temporarily during the current government shutdown.

The department has also brought in , a longtime Washington, D.C., education researcher, to take on the task of reforming IES. Northern, on leave from the conservative Thomas B. Fordham Institute, is expected to remain at the department until December. While her remit lasts just six months, it is giving researchers hope that having one of their own advising McMahon will yield positive results.

鈥淚 am more hopeful than I was three months ago that there will be some reinvention, rather than a death, of federal education research,鈥� said a scholar at a top nonprofit research organization with several long-term federal contracts. 鈥淭o me, it seems just absurd that the federal government would say, 鈥榃e’re getting out of the realm of doing education research,鈥� because education is so fundamental to the future of the country.鈥�

In interviews, several researchers and policy experts said they鈥檙e similarly optimistic, but most requested to remain anonymous, fearing that speaking out could jeopardize future funding and relationships with administration officials.

Of Northern, one researcher said she鈥檚 鈥渧ery much someone who believes in empirical evidence. So I could not think of a better person to be advising the Trump administration on the future of IES.鈥�

Mike Petrilli, Fordham鈥檚 president and , said he was pleased that McMahon would turn to her for guidance. 鈥淚 always felt it was a good sign that they wanted somebody like Amber,鈥� he said, viewing it as 鈥渁n indication that they did want to rebuild鈥� IES, not get rid of it.

Petrilli, who has on occasion of Trump since his first election in 2016, said he鈥檚 optimistic that 鈥渢he people, the political appointees now at the Department of Education, understand the importance of research and evaluation and statistics.鈥� But Musk鈥檚 DOGE operation, he said, was 鈥渁ble to do great damage, terrible damage, before anybody had a chance to stop them.鈥�

(DOGE was) able to do great damage, terrible damage, before anybody had a chance to stop them.

Mike Petrilli, Thomas B. Fordham Institute

Another person who works closely with researchers in the field, who asked not to be identified, said they have been assured by top administration officials that 鈥淭here’s a lot that’s going to come back online 鈥� it’s just going to come back online in different ways that some of the field will be ready for, and other parts of the field will not be ready for.鈥� The source said the department is looking into performance- and outcomes-based contracting, a more flexible system that lets agencies more clearly. 

Administration officials, meanwhile, have acknowledged 鈥渢he chaos of the first six months,鈥� which they don鈥檛 want to repeat, the source said. They鈥檙e in the process of shifting to 鈥渁 different sort of phase where we want to see results for this money that we’re spending.鈥�

In a statement, U.S. Education Department spokesperson Madi Biedermann said the Trump Administration 鈥渋s committed to supporting a national education research entity that delivers usable, high-quality data and resources for educators, researchers, and other stakeholders. This has been clear in the Secretary鈥檚 repeated commitments to protect NAEP. NCES and IES were in desperate need of reform.鈥�

McMahon in May told congressional lawmakers she had rehired 鈥溾�� of the approximately 2,000 department employees who were laid off last winter, though a department spokesperson disputed this.

Several people said they were surprised and heartened that IES last month began for eight 鈥� and possibly more 鈥� high-level assessment jobs at the National Center for Education Statistics, for work on the National Assessment of Educational Progress.

But several experts said there鈥檚 a lot of work to do if the administration genuinely wants to rebuild its research infrastructure, given DOGE鈥檚 deep cuts last winter, when the ad hoc agency trimmed the NCES staff from about 100 employees to three. 

鈥淚t’s hard to be too optimistic, given the limited resources that NCES has in particular,鈥� said , a professor at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville who studies state higher education finance and the financial viability of higher education. 

Kelchen said the administration鈥檚 own priorities could make McMahon鈥檚 work more challenging, noting that an Aug. 7 executive order by President Trump forces NCES to undertake a massive that will collect data on admissions practices going back five years by race, sex and test scores, among other indicators. 

The order alleges that race-based admissions practices 鈥渁re not only unfair, but also threaten our national security and well-being.鈥�&苍产蝉辫;

The survey, said Kelchen, is 鈥渁 massive data collection effort 鈥� and it’s hard to see how it ends up being successful, especially retroactively.鈥�

It's hard to be too optimistic, given the limited resources that NCES has in particular.

Robert Kelchen, University of Tennessee

Poor NAEP results

Several people said recent poor student results on NAEP have likely catalyzed much of the strong support for IES.

鈥淭hey knew the NAEP results were going to be bad, and they got these NAEP job descriptions up quickly,鈥� said one observer.

Several others agreed, but just as many said the recent poor results bring a new urgency to reshaping NAEP so that its next generation of tests are both high-quality and relevant to educators.

鈥淣AEP is falling further and further behind in terms of the gold standard, which it hasn’t been for some time,鈥� said a former IES official. 鈥淏ut what is the plan? What’s the vision? NAEP just confirms bad news all the time. So what are we going to have in terms of policies to correct it?鈥� 

Another person familiar with NAEP predicted that even with NCES鈥檚 smaller staff, next year鈥檚 tests 鈥渨ill likely go off O.K.,鈥� but that many reporting functions, such as score reports broken out by states, have been cut to shrink costs, making the results less useful. 鈥淚t’s one thing to collect the data 鈥� it’s another thing to report it in a way that people can use.鈥�&苍产蝉辫;

This person said NAEP is well-known for robust reporting platforms such as its , but IES has already said it will end future district-level reporting for 8th-grade history and science tests, among others. 鈥淚f we’re short-handed there, then people will say, ‘What’s the value of NAEP?鈥欌��

Looking ahead, this person worries that cuts to functions like the , an extensive database on public K-12 education, and other efforts could compromise the actual tests after 2026. 鈥淚f we don’t have good sampling and weighting, then NAEP is just a test. It’s not the Nation’s Report Card, because we need all those data to be able to make it a truly national picture.鈥�

The 鈥榚ducation improvement industrial complex鈥�

A prime example of the changes taking place is the expected reinstatement of the 10 regional education labs, or RELs, which were funded to the tune of $336 million, but were closed in February after the department alleged, without offering much evidence, that a review 鈥渨asteful and ideologically driven spending.鈥� It noted, for instance, that a lab based in Ohio had been advising schools there to undertake 鈥渆quity audits.鈥�

But educators nationwide have rallied to the labs鈥� defense, noting that in 2019 the REL Southeast, based at Florida State University, helped the state of Mississippi improve reading results so much that its fourth-graders rose from 49th in the nation to 29th 鈥� the so-called 鈥�Mississippi Miracle.鈥�&苍产蝉辫;

The 10 labs will now be able to begin the process of restarting their work for the remainder of the federal contract, the department revealed in a in June. 

A researcher who works with school districts to design programs said the centers could be reconceived to be more helpful to teachers: 鈥淭here’s so much money. And if you think about what the products were, it’s hard in all cases to imagine that amount of money was yielding such exceptional change in the educational system that we need to keep going exactly as-is.鈥�

This person noted that outfits like the RELs often benefit from the support of an 鈥渆ducation improvement industrial complex鈥� that lobbies for continued funding. The DOGE cuts, this person said, badly undercut that support system.

At the same time, a few observers said IES more broadly should continue, no matter what the fate of the Education Department in this administration. 

鈥淚 believe firmly that there should be an Institute for Education Sciences, even if it is configured differently,鈥� said , senior director of the University of Chicago Education Lab. 鈥淧erhaps unsurprisingly, I believe in the power of R & D 鈥� and I think we need it more than ever, given declining test scores and the implications that has for our international competitiveness.鈥�

I believe in the power of R & D 鈥� and I think we need it more than ever, given declining test scores and the implications that has for our international competitiveness.

Monica Bhatt, University of Chicago

Achievement is dropping across the board on NAEP scores, she noted. 鈥淪o we have to start investing in this area if we’re going to make progress.鈥�

For his part, Kelchen, the Tennessee scholar, said the disruptions of the administration鈥檚 first nine months haven鈥檛 taken too much of a toll on his work. Aside from an IES grant proposal that simply never got reviewed, he conducts research without federal assistance and without using federal restricted use data, which typically contains confidential information that isn鈥檛 publicly released. Accessing it requires an . 

But he said the chaos is changing his classroom: Last spring, he taught a graduate course and remembered, 鈥淗alf the nights we met for class, there was some big announcement coming out of the Department of Education that affected higher ed finance,鈥� disrupting what he thought the class would talk about. In one case, he said, a Feb. 10 discussion of higher ed expenditures was cut short by the news of DOGE鈥檚 IES grant cuts 鈥渂reaking halfway through class.鈥�

More broadly, Kelchen said the uncertainty is making everyone at the university uneasy. 鈥淚t鈥檚 an interesting time to be an academic department head, just given that enrollment鈥檚 uncertain, funding鈥檚 uncertain,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e could have normal international student enrollment in a year. We could have zero. We just don’t know about anything.鈥�

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