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This article is part of 麻豆精品鈥檚 EDlection 2024 coverage, which takes a look at candidates鈥� education policies and how they might impact the American education system after the 2024 election.

Correction appended August 26

The Child Tax Credit isn鈥檛 a subject you鈥檇 expect to receive much attention in the middle of a heated presidential campaign.

Somewhat technocratic in nature, invisible to a large share of the electorate, the benefit was established in 1997 to provide relief to parents while their kids were young. Its reach is impressive, granting to roughly 40 million American households, but it鈥檚 hardly the kind of policy that grows in prominence in the months before Election Day.

If that鈥檚 true, however, no one told Washington.

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have declared their intentions to expand the credit if elected. Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance has openly mused about lifting its value , a commitment that would cost trillions over the next decade. And the U.S. House of Representatives a much more modest extension on a bipartisan basis in January, only to see its progress halted by Republicans in the Senate. 

At the heart of the issue are debates reaching back to the credit鈥檚 origins about who should be its primary beneficiaries: middle-class households or those with little or no income. 

Progressives have long sought to use the CTC as a weapon against inequality; their efforts culminated in 2021 with a temporary expansion that massively cut child poverty for a year, then expired to the disappointment of activists. But conservatives, both in , have feared that increasing the credit鈥檚 size and decoupling it from work requirements could transform it into a cash welfare program of the kind nearly 30 years ago. 

Both parties鈥� long-standing positions are headed toward a harsh deadline, however. Next year, a host of provisions from Trump鈥檚 signature 2017 tax cut will expire, among them a measure that boosted the Child Tax Credit from $1,000 to its present $2,000. Already weakened by inflation, the benefit would be cut in half if nothing is done. With 2025 coming into ever-sharper focus, Republicans and Democrats have both put forward ideas to stabilize the CTC 鈥� the only question is whether either party will hold enough power to enact its vision.

For six shining months in 2021, we finally treated children in poverty like they were our children, not someone else鈥檚.

Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, a Democrat advocating for a more powerful CTC, said in a statement to 麻豆精品 that he was glad to hear of Harris鈥檚 recent proposal .

鈥淔or six shining months in 2021, we finally treated children in poverty like they were our children, not someone else鈥檚,鈥� Bennett said. 鈥淚 think that should be our model going into 2025.鈥�

But Robert Greenstein, president emeritus of the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and a veteran of past poverty debates, said he believed that the most probable outcome of this year鈥檚 elections would be a divided federal government, likely necessitating a bipartisan consensus on the credit鈥檚 future. 

The Senate鈥檚 to act on legislation already passed in the House suggested that any move to alter or expand it would have to be tied to other tax cuts favored by the GOP, he added.

I find it hard to imagine that we'll have a tax bill next year with a net cost of $3 or $4 trillion over 10 years.

Robert Greenstein, anti-poverty advocate

鈥淭hey didn’t want to have this negotiated on its own,鈥� Greenstein said. 鈥淭hey want it as part of the negotiations for the extension of the 2017 tax bill, which will occur next year.”

A debate on entitlement

From relatively small beginnings, the Child Tax Credit has grown significantly more generous over time. It was worth just $400 per child in 1997, increasing to $500 the next year. That number leapt to $1,000 per child in the 2001 Bush tax cuts, then to $2,000 in 2017鈥檚 Trump-led law. 

The CTC has simultaneously become accessible to many more people. Initially conceived as a 鈥渘on-refundable鈥� credit (i.e., one that could only be claimed by people who paid a certain amount of federal taxes) it later became 鈥減artially refundable,鈥� such that lower-earning families could collect a portion of it. After 2021, they could receive a credit equal to 15 percent of their earnings over $10,000, a threshold that was lowered successively to $3,000, and finally to $2,500 in 2017. 

Republicans were more focused on giving middle-class families a tax cut and having an earnings requirement.

Scott Winship, American Enterprise Institute

Although many of those changes occurred under Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Trump, conservatives remained leery of backing their way into a new, welfare-like 鈥渃hild allowance.鈥�

鈥淔or most of the ’90s and 2000s, you had Democrats who preferred a fully refundable tax credit where what you got didn’t depend on having taxable income,鈥� said Scott Winship, a researcher on family policy for the conservative American Enterprise Institute. 鈥淩epublicans were more focused on giving middle-class families a tax cut and having an earnings requirement.鈥� 

But after their victory in the 2020 elections, Democrats acted almost immediately to transform the CTC into ,supercharging its annual value to $3,600 for children under six and $3,000 for those aged six to 17 and allowing the poorest households to receive its full amount.

The expansion only ran through the end of the year, but many within the Democratic Party have for restoring it, pointing to a national child poverty rate from 9.7 percent in 2020 to 5.2 percent in 2021. While only a few years have passed since the policy was enacted, indicates that the jumbo-sized CTC allowed poor families to spend more in ways that are likely helpful to child development. Its effects were especially large in high-poverty states in the Midwest and Sun Belt, found. 

Yet some of the big-ticket bids to transform the program into a much larger entitlement strike some observers as unworkable. In a recent interview, Vance said he would favor a $5,000 credit per child, which the nonprofit estimated as much as $300 billion annually. Greenstein dismissed the notion as 鈥渨ildly expensive.鈥� 鈥� particularly given that the Ohio senator specified that all American families, including both the poor and the ultra-rich, should be considered eligible recipients.

“Somehow I find it hard to imagine that we’ll have a tax bill next year with a net cost of $3 or $4 trillion over 10 years,鈥� he said. 鈥淪omewhere along the line, fiscal concerns will limit the magnitude.鈥� 

A 鈥榥o-brainer鈥�?

Any further developments on the Child Tax Credit will hinge on the outcome of the upcoming elections.

Trump his running mate鈥檚 proposal, noting that it was during his administration that the CTC grew to its current size. Meanwhile, in her first major address on policy, Harris counter-offered of her own, with parents of newborns receiving $6,000. 

Notably, a bipartisan bill to expand the credit already made it through the House of Representatives this year, . Co-sponsored by the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, the legislation would significantly lower the income threshold to receive the CTC鈥檚 full value, above the poverty line. 

Despite its towering margin in the House, as being far less effective than the 2021 expansion by Democratic Rep. Rose DeLauro, a longtime advocate of making the credit more generous. Winship and his colleagues at AEI, on the other hand, argued that the expansion could disincentivize low-income parents from , or even .

Winship said he was 鈥渁 little nervous鈥� that weakening employment requirements could hurt families鈥� chances of escaping poverty 鈥� in the same way, he argued, as the less conditional cash welfare programs of the 1970s and 鈥�80s did.

鈥淭hose programs have work disincentives for the parents, but they also have savings disincentives, marriage disincentives, disincentives for parents against investing in their skills,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hose are the sorts of behaviors that promote upward mobility, and we worry that you’re not actually doing kids a favor in the long run by giving their parents cash without conditions.”

(The child tax credit) transcends geography, demographics, political party ... This is something everyone agrees needs to happen.

Keri Rodrigues, National Parents Union

But Keri Rodrigues, the head of the , said the Republicans failed American children when they blocked the deal from passage in the Senate. Rodrigues of her organization, which advocates for families and schools, to gather support for the compromise legislation. They saw some success 鈥� three Republicans voted in favor, including conservative Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley 鈥� but returned home discouraged in the face of a GOP-led filibuster.

Rodrigues called the CTC expansion a 鈥渘o-brainer,鈥� adding that families already squeezed by inflation couldn鈥檛 afford to see the benefit fade as well.

“It transcends geography, demographics, political party,鈥� she said. 鈥淭his is something everyone agrees needs to happen.”

Correction: An earlier version of this story misidentified the affiliation of Keri Rodrigues.

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