Freshman College Enrollment Actually Increased Last Year, Corrected Report Finds

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Freshman College Enrollment Actually Increased Last Year, Corrected Report Finds

After correcting a data error, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reports that college freshman enrollment increased by 5.5% in 2024.

By K.C. Compton

January 29, 2025

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After correcting for an earlier data error, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) last week that college freshman enrollment increased by 5.5% last fall. The new figures are a reversal of the center’s released in October 2024, which indicated a decline in college freshman enrollment.

Key Takeaways

Initial estimates reported by the NSCRC in the fall report indicated that enrollment of college freshmen had declined by 5% last year, with especially concerning drops at four-year colleges that serve low-income students. The report projected the largest drop in freshman enrollment since 2020.
The NSCRC to that report earlier this month, stating that it had been based on a 鈥渕ethodological error鈥� that 鈥渃aused the mislabeling of certain students as dual enrolled rather than as freshmen,鈥� which skewed the research group鈥檚 preliminary enrollment figures.
The NSCRC鈥檚 subsequent research, reported in its recently released , found that freshman enrollment grew by 5.5% in fall 2024 compared to 2023, representing an increase of about 130,000 freshmen. The growth is driven by older first-year students; enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen is still below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, the NSCRC said.
Overall college enrollment grew 4.5% in fall 2024 compared to the previous year, a gain of about 817,000 post-secondary students. Total college enrollment is now about 0.4% above 2019鈥檚 pre-pandemic levels, with undergraduate enrollment at nearly 16 million students and graduate enrollment at 3.2 million students, the report found.

In his statement about the error, NSCRC Executive Director Doug Shapiro said the Current Term Enrollment Estimates report published in January provides a more comprehensive view of enrollment trends based on data from nearly all higher education institutions and uses different methodologies to determine freshman enrollees. The 鈥淪tay Informed鈥� preliminary enrollment report published in October 2024 was based on data from half of the colleges and universities that submit data to the organization.

鈥淭he National Student Clearinghouse Research Center acknowledges the importance and significance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community,鈥� Shapiro said in a statement. He added that the center deeply regrets the error and is conducting a thorough review to discover its source.

Inside Higher Ed that the error came to light as researchers were preparing the center鈥檚 January report and noted the sharp contrast between preliminary estimates and the final numbers, prompting a retroactive review of the October report and the center鈥檚 November .

The research center created the Stay Informed report in the summer of 2020 to provide 鈥渆arly and real-time enrollment information鈥� to meet the needs of the higher education community at the height of the COVID pandemic. It has continued to produce these preliminary reports each fall, followed by final and complete reporting on enrollment each winter in its January reports.

Because the NSCRC has been the go-to source for statistical data on higher education, shook researchers and higher education leaders and the media outlets that covered the report. The past year has been a challenging one for the higher education sector. Jeremy Cohen, an NSCRC research associate and one of the report鈥檚 authors, said that there are a number of forces affecting freshman enrollment, including demographic shifts, the and the of the 2024-25 Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA).

The U.S. Department of Education with the preliminary results as early as October when its financial data showed a 3% increase in students receiving federal aid for 2024-25, with 10% more students on track to receive Pell Grants 鈥� figures that didn鈥檛 match the enrollment declines NSCRC had reported.

In a statement last week, the Education Department鈥檚 former undersecretary James Kvaal said he was 鈥渆ncouraged and relieved鈥� by the revised assessment, which he said was consistent with what officials were seeing on the financial side.

Though the enrollment figures for fall 2024 now tell a different story, suggesting at least a moderate post-pandemic recovery, the revised figures don鈥檛 change the fact that some steep declines still loom for higher education. According to a recent from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the number of 18-year-old high school graduates will peak in 2025 at around 3.9 million and are expected to be followed by a 15-year decline, bringing the projected demographic cliff to reality.

Highlights from the Current Term Enrollment Estimates:

Undergraduate enrollment for fall 2024 increased for all racial and ethnic demographics, with Hispanic, Black, Asian and multiracial students鈥� enrollment increasing for the third consecutive fall. White student enrollment grew 1% in fall 2024, the first increase from pre-pandemic levels.

The 2024 report saw a continuation of the trend of 18-year-old incoming freshmen reporting their race or ethnicity as 鈥渦nknown鈥� or declining to report it at all.

Undergraduate enrollment increased across all sectors, with community colleges seeing especially strong growth, a 5.9% increase, or 325,000 additional students. Freshman growth was especially robust at community colleges, with 63,000 freshmen enrolled over the last year.

Public two-year institutions with a strong emphasis on vocational programs saw healthy growth for the second year in a row, up 13.6% in the last year. Schools with a high vocational program focus now comprise 19.5% of public two-year enrollment, up from 15.3% in 2019.

Undergraduate certificate program enrollment increased for the fourth consecutive year, up nearly 10% in the fall of 2024, placing enrollments 28.5% above 2019 levels. Enrollment in bachelor鈥檚 and associate degree programs increased slightly but remained below 2019 levels.

Enrollment increased across all regions in fall 2024, with institutions in the Northeast seeing a 4.7% increase 鈥� the first since before the pandemic. The South and West saw similar gains, with the Midwest seeing enrollment rise by 3.1%.

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K.C. Compton worked as a reporter, editor and columnist for newspapers throughout the Rocky Mountain region for 20 years before moving to the Kansas City area as an editor for Mother Earth News. She has been in Seattle since 2016, enjoying life as a freelance and contract writer and editor.

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                <h2>Freshman College Enrollment Actually Increased Last Year, Corrected Report Finds</h2>

                <h2>After correcting a data error, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reports that college freshman enrollment increased by 5.5% in 2024.</h2>

                <p class="sans">By <a rel="author" href="/contributor/k-c-compton/">K.C. Compton</a></p>

                <img src="/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/college-enrollment-increase.jpg">

                <p>This story first appeared at <a href="/">麻豆精品</a>, a nonprofit news site covering education. <a href="/about/newsletters/?utm_source=republish-button&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=republish">Sign up for free newsletters from 麻豆精品</a> to get more like this in your inbox.</p>
                
<p>After correcting for an earlier data error, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC)  last week that college freshman enrollment increased by 5.5% last fall. The new figures are a reversal of the center’s  released in October 2024, which indicated a decline in college freshman enrollment.</p>



<h3>Key Takeaways</h3>



<ul>
<li>Initial estimates reported by the NSCRC in the fall report indicated that enrollment of college freshmen had declined by 5% last year, with especially concerning drops at four-year colleges that serve low-income students. The report projected the largest drop in freshman enrollment since 2020. </li>



<li>The NSCRC  to that report earlier this month, stating that it had been based on a 鈥渕ethodological error鈥� that 鈥渃aused the mislabeling of certain students as dual enrolled rather than as freshmen,鈥� which skewed the research group鈥檚 preliminary enrollment figures.</li>



<li>The NSCRC鈥檚 subsequent research, reported in its recently released , found that freshman enrollment grew by 5.5% in fall 2024 compared to 2023, representing an increase of about 130,000 freshmen. The growth is driven by older first-year students; enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen is still below  pre-pandemic 2019 levels, the NSCRC said.</li>



<li>Overall college enrollment grew 4.5% in fall 2024 compared to the previous year, a gain of about 817,000 post-secondary students. Total college enrollment is now about 0.4% above 2019鈥檚 pre-pandemic levels, with undergraduate enrollment at nearly 16 million students and graduate enrollment at 3.2 million students, the report found.</li>
</ul>



<p>In his statement about the error, NSCRC Executive Director Doug Shapiro said the Current Term Enrollment Estimates report published in January provides a more comprehensive view of enrollment trends based on data from nearly all higher education institutions and uses different methodologies to determine freshman enrollees. The 鈥淪tay Informed鈥� preliminary enrollment report published in October 2024 was based on data from half of the colleges and universities that submit data to the organization. </p>



<p>鈥淭he National Student Clearinghouse Research Center acknowledges the importance and significance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community,鈥� Shapiro said in a statement. He added that the center deeply regrets the error and is conducting a thorough review to discover its source. </p>



<p>Inside Higher Ed  that the error came to light as researchers were preparing the center鈥檚 January report and noted the sharp contrast between preliminary estimates and the final numbers, prompting a retroactive review of the October report and the center鈥檚 November . </p>



<p>The research center created the Stay Informed report in the summer of 2020 to provide 鈥渆arly and real-time enrollment information鈥� to meet the needs of the higher education community at the height of the COVID pandemic. It has continued to produce these preliminary reports each fall, followed by final and complete reporting on enrollment each winter in its January reports. </p>



<p>Because the NSCRC has been the go-to source for statistical data on higher education,  shook researchers and higher education leaders and the media outlets that covered the report. The past year has been a challenging one for the higher education sector. Jeremy Cohen, an NSCRC research associate and one of the report鈥檚 authors, said that there are a number of forces affecting freshman enrollment, including demographic shifts, the  and the  of the 2024-25 Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA).</p>



<p>The U.S. Department of Education with the preliminary results as early as October when its financial data showed a 3% increase in students receiving federal aid for 2024-25, with 10% more students on track to receive Pell Grants 鈥� figures that didn鈥檛 match the enrollment declines NSCRC had reported.</p>



<p>In a statement last week, the Education Department鈥檚 former undersecretary James Kvaal said he was 鈥渆ncouraged and relieved鈥� by the revised assessment, which he said was consistent with what officials were seeing on the financial side. </p>



<p>Though the enrollment figures for fall 2024 now tell a different story, suggesting at least a moderate post-pandemic recovery, the revised figures don鈥檛 change the fact that some steep declines still loom for higher education. According to a recent  from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the number of 18-year-old high school graduates will peak in 2025 at around 3.9 million and are expected to be followed by a 15-year decline, bringing the projected demographic cliff to reality.</p>



<aside class="is-layout-constrained wp-block-group is-style-accordion-content"><div class="wp-block-group__inner-container">
<h4>Highlights from the Current Term Enrollment Estimates: </h4>



<ul>
<li>Undergraduate enrollment for fall 2024 increased for all racial and ethnic demographics, with Hispanic, Black, Asian and multiracial students鈥� enrollment increasing for the third consecutive fall. White student enrollment grew 1% in fall 2024, the first increase from pre-pandemic levels. </li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>The 2024 report saw a continuation of the trend of 18-year-old incoming freshmen reporting their race or ethnicity as 鈥渦nknown鈥� or declining to report it at all. </li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Undergraduate enrollment increased across all sectors, with community colleges seeing especially strong growth, a 5.9% increase, or 325,000 additional students. Freshman growth was especially robust at community colleges, with 63,000 freshmen enrolled over the last year. </li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Public two-year institutions with a strong emphasis on vocational programs saw healthy growth for the second year in a row, up 13.6% in the last year. Schools with a high vocational program focus now comprise 19.5% of public two-year enrollment, up from 15.3% in 2019. </li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Undergraduate certificate program enrollment increased for the fourth consecutive year, up nearly 10% in the fall of 2024, placing enrollments 28.5% above 2019 levels. Enrollment in bachelor鈥檚 and associate degree programs increased slightly but remained below 2019 levels.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Enrollment increased across all regions in fall 2024, with institutions in the Northeast seeing a 4.7% increase 鈥� the first since before the pandemic. The South and West saw similar gains, with the Midwest seeing enrollment rise by 3.1%. </li>
</ul>
</div></aside>

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