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Updated March 20

The in West Virginia, resolved only after the legislature granted all public employees a 5 percent raise, was the most consequential victory for teachers unions in years. The spontaneity and coordination of the walkouts, especially in a state whose century-old heritage of union activism had , took much of the country by surprise.

Now organizers in Oklahoma about launching a wildcat strike of their own if demands for a pay raise aren鈥檛 met soon, and may be close behind. Both groups share many of the concerns that their colleagues expressed in Charleston last month. The average salary for West Virginia teachers by the National Education Association, the country鈥檚 largest union. Oklahoma slotted in at 49th, and Arizona 43rd.

And yet even as activists in other states are and plotting their next moves, organized labor is bracing for what could be its most damaging setback in ages: the Supreme Court鈥檚 ruling in Janus v. AFSCME, which could end 鈥渁gency fees鈥� and strip unions of much of their financing and power. If the Court rules in the way most expect it to, the entire country will become a 鈥渞ight-to-work鈥� jurisdiction for public employees, as West Virginia now is.

So is it the best of times or the worst of times? Are teachers unions on the verge of a generational defeat, or a huge surge in organizing?

鈥淭he strike was, I think, an amazing event,鈥� says Joseph Slater, a professor of labor law at the University of Toledo College of Law. 鈥淧ublic workers in West Virginia not only have no legal right to strike, but they have no right to bargain collectively. So I think it鈥檚 a reminder that sometimes unions can accomplish great things.鈥�

Unrest in the public sector workforce 鈥� and particularly extended, statewide strikes 鈥� following a period of extreme tumult in the 1960s and 鈥�70s. That鈥檚 partially because unionized teachers, police, and government workers can鈥檛 always count on support from the public, which tends to at their contracts and benefits during tough economic times.

The worst downturn in nearly 80 years, the Great Recession, preceded the latest and most damaging spate of anti-union measures. Since the 2010 midterm elections ushered in Republican governors and legislative majorities in statehouses around the country, six states have passed right-to-work laws, including West Virginia in 2016. In the two states where labor鈥檚 foes gained the most ground, Michigan and Wisconsin, has .

The reversals have pushed some union members to consider drastic options. The West Virginia walkout wasn鈥檛 merely prohibited by state law; it began without the approval of .

鈥淚t鈥檚 a risk 鈥� these strikes are illegal,鈥� says Slater. 鈥淭he unions could be fined, and all the individual strikers could be fined. So it鈥檚 a risky tactic, but it does look like one that unions in other states are considering.鈥�

If teachers in Oklahoma, Arizona, and elsewhere succeed in taking statewide action, they stand a good chance of having their demands met, if only because of the sheer disruption they could cause families. Parents in West Virginia struggled to secure childcare over the two weeks the strike was in effect, and the resistance of Republican legislators to voting on a salary increase eventually dissolved in the face of the teachers鈥� resolve.

鈥淚n West Virginia there are 20,000 teachers, and if they band together, it鈥檚 very difficult to do anything other than deal with them,鈥� says Jon Shelton, a historian of labor movements at the University of Wisconsin鈥擥reen Bay and the author of .

鈥淵ou can鈥檛 fire and replace 20,000 teachers. Even though it鈥檚 illegal [to strike in West Virginia], you can鈥檛 arrest 20,000 teachers. So even in places where the deck is kind of stacked against workers, there鈥檚 a serious practical impossibility of actually preventing them from striking.鈥�

If public employees are feeling increasingly frisky, and they鈥檝e rediscovered a tool that could help them win concessions from state governments, the question becomes: How will the impact of Janus be felt? Again, the Court鈥檚 5鈥�4 conservative majority signals almost certain union defeat. The only reason agency fees weren鈥檛 swept aside two years ago in the Friedrichs v. California Teachers Association case was .

One theory, by former union employee Shaun Richman, is that a comprehensive decision against agency fees could fuel the resurgence of radical labor tactics. Since most collectively bargained contracts employ agency fees as a counterweight to a no-strike clause, their elimination could result in more 鈥� and more unpredictable 鈥� strikes. With their backs against the wall and a critical source of funding demolished, Richman argues, teachers unions might splinter into ever more belligerent shards 鈥� some conservative, some leftist.

鈥淚t would not surprise me if some unions rev up the internal organizing, perhaps going so far as to demonize the employer, as a tactic to convince rank-and-file employees to maintain their union membership,鈥� Martin Malin, a law professor and the director of the Institute for Law and the Workplace at Chicago-Kent College of Law, told 麻豆精品. 鈥淯nion leaders may find it difficult to control that level of militancy. It could impede some very successful union-management partnerships that have worked for the good of employees and the public.鈥�

The lead attorney for the union argued as much before the Supreme Court. 鈥淭he fees are the trade-off,鈥� said David Frederick, lead attorney for AFSCME. 鈥淯nion security is the trade-off for no strikes 鈥� You can raise an untold specter of labor unrest throughout the country.鈥�

That鈥檚 not an outcome Slater considers likely. He believes that, deprived of membership and revenue, unions nationwide will see their organizing capacity meaningfully diminished if the Court rules against them 鈥� just as they have in states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

The connection between ending agency fees and the prevalence of illegal strikes 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 have a lot of historical support in places where we鈥檝e seen states adopt right-to-work rules already,鈥� he says.

Shelton, who has observed the aftermath of Gov. Scott Walker鈥檚 anti-union reforms from his university post in Green Bay, agrees that the outlook for teachers unions is unfavorable. But he adds that they have taken steps since Scalia鈥檚 death to cushion the blow.

鈥�, and my sense is that unions in this state weren鈥檛 really prepared,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ecause there was this expectation that the Friedrichs case was going to [overturn agency fees] in 2016, I know that unions have been recommitting to deep organizing drives. If this had happened two years ago, the devastation would have been much more severe.鈥�

Indeed, national organizations like AFSCME and NEA have to persuading non-members to come aboard and encouraging existing members to sign 鈥渃ommitment cards鈥� signaling that they will stick with the union even after the death of agency fees. Making a virtue of necessity, many have seized on the crisis to identify and cultivate new leadership structures in local branches.

鈥淚鈥檓 not being Pollyanna-ish about this. I do think this is going to have negative consequences in the short term,鈥� says Shelton. 鈥淏ut … it鈥檚 actually quite possible that in the long term, unions in states that traditionally had agency fees could become more democratic, particularly through alliances in the communities where they teach.鈥�

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